Freedom Loving democrats Take Heart

 Recently, I’ve read in the press several letters and articles asking if this is the end of the enlightenment, or is democracy a passing fad. It certainly would appear so if you follow world events such as the failure of the Arab Spring, the increasing power of authoritarian regimes and the rise of Trump in America. Well, despite all the gloom for Democratic Liberals, I’m confident that the underlining trend is positive and although the road is currently bumpy, the world WILL emerge a better place. But we must endeavour to get there as rapidly as possible to minimise the harm to humanity.

The causes of the these rough times are rapid technological change, generational echoes  and globalization. (I’ve left out environmental change for now, as the full impact has yet to hit).

The Chinese president, Xi Jinping, is the  son of Communist revolutionary Xi Zhongxun, a member of China’s red aristocracy. He grew up in a family with strong roots in the Party and it’s ideals of a Socialist state providing for the good of all the people. However, with the relaxing of economic controls in the 1980’s, and globalisation opening up  worldwide markets, hard working Chinese entrepreneurs took full advantage and made themselves and China rich. This isn’t what Xi’s hero’s  fought the revolution for. Currently he is trying to get capitalism under control so that all of China can fairly develop to be the socialist super power the party has always dreamt of (with the Party on top living in sumptuous luxury)  The difficulty he faces is that to do this, he needs free thinking, richly rewarded, unrestricted capitalists, not state controlled business’ shackled by meddling corrupt party members. So what will happen in China? As we are seeing, covid and other regulations are slowing growth rates and the people are getting restless. If the Chinese Communist Party starts to be seen as the cause of this slow down, capitalism and more freedoms will be back on the table. Unfortunately Xi Jinping is currently using Military sabre rattling to paper over the cracks in his policies. The west must not over react, but be patient and let the cracks get bigger.

Similarly in Russia, Putin is an ageing echo of the past century. As he was losing popularity with his own people and as he has no intention of giving up power, he cracked down on the opposition, stamped out dissent and came up with a scheme to make him popular again, namely take over Ukraine and recreate the Russia Empire.. The only problem is, his military isn’t up to the job of overcoming highly motivated Ukrainians and he underestimated the western reaction, which hasn’t forgotten what happened when Hitler started invading neighbouring countries.  Also eastern Europeans and Russians have had 30 plus years of western freedoms and few want to go back to Soviet times, so Putin is in a very deep pit of his own making. As he continues to dig, the west must help the Ukrainians and freedom loving Russians, not to appease Putin but bury him and is authoritarian experiment once and for all. Russian joining the EU in 20 twenty years time? No lets make it 10 years.

Trump continues to worry liberals despite losing the last election. Will he run in 2024? Of course he will, he loves the adulation. He’s addicted to it. But the many criminal investigations against him will eventually catch up with him and then America will have to decide if they want a criminal in charge. Currently many love Trump and love is blind but hopefully they will do as we did in Britain. We got rid of our leader because he had a few knees ups, which were outlawed as deadly covid spreading events at the time. Strong men leaders always overstep the mark as they have no control over their egos.

And what is magnifying  all this global mayhem - the internet. It is allowing anyone with a computer or mobile to state their opinion, whether genuine or deceitful and have it instantly available, translated to any where in the world. Anybody at the touch of a few buttons can obtain information from others and chip in with their comments too. We are in the early stages of this world wide conversation, and it's not going to be possible to turned it off now, there is no going back. Each and every citizen of the world is capable of telling their thoughts, filming their experiences and sharing them with who ever is interested in reading or viewing. The internet is showing us the world as it really is, not as a few want it to be seen.

What has been the early results of this tech revolution? Well authoritarian regimes, who like telling their people only what they would like them to hear, hate it. Hence China’s massive attempts to control the internet. But they can’t get rid of it because they love the power it gives them to snoop on peoples private lives so they can arrest any hint of opposition. However in the long run people expressing their views online curbs their power, as right is might not might is right. There are many examples of people protesting on line in China, but after an initial crack down, the party takes note and sorts out the protesters concerns. This trend will only increase as people realise it gets results.

Another early effect is that extremists, who always shout the loudest (often when holding a gun), embraced the internet to spread their views and encouraged others to join them. However in the long run the exposure they get back fires as the flaws in their ideas are examined and exposed for what they are, out dated historic rubbish which has no place in a globalised world of freely mixing people and ideas. No wonder they hate the west so much - their beliefs are doomed once the next generation, who love the internet and global travel, replace them. .

 So Liberal, freedom loving democrats of the world do not despair. Continue to shout out our values. The West is not perfect but better than alternatives. That is why people the world over want to come and live and work here. More people are leaving Russia and China than arriving. Who wants to live in Belarus or North Korea? Why do people risk their lives to enter the USA or cross the Channel. This is the reality of the World politics.

People Choose freedom not oppression. Truths withstand lies. Respect is better than hate.

How to Stop A Tyrant Part 2

 Human beings, which can only thrive in social groups, have a fundamental need for approval by their community. The threat of being thrown out of your group, because it disapproves of something you said or did usually leads to you apologising and backing down to ensure that your membership continues. Ostracism is woeful, as Ovid in exile found out.

Why do Authoritarian states and dictatorships hold elections and referendums, even when they have no intention of releasing their grip on power? Why do they bother? The answer is because, it is a way of  showing to their Social group, which is other nations and their own people, that they are justified in their behaviour and policies. It maintains the delusion that they are democratic and acting correctly, so are immune from criticism and should continue in power. They too, don’t want to be thrown out of the international group .

                                             
So rigged elections continue around the world, even though the results are predetermined, in Hong Kong, China, Belarus, Russian occupied Ukraine. Social acceptance is essential, regardless of the voters point of view.

Putin craves social acceptance and this explains why he writes to North Korea (a minor poor country), sends his second in command on tour to African Countries (to justify his actions), craves the friendship of China (who‘s system he is copies), allows grain shipments from Ukraine (which was making him unpopular in neutral countries), permits UN inspection of a Nuclear plant in a War Zone, (he would be blamed for any nuclear disaster) and wants history to remember him as Peter the Great (social acceptance forever).

Even China, craves acceptance and respect from the world, it wants it’s political system to be recognised world wide as the best. it’s a shame that currently, it wants to demonstrate this by military force. If China really did have the greatest political system, countries like Taiwan would be queuing up to be it’s friend, given the size of its market.

A while ago I asked “How do you stop a tyrant who points a gun in your face?”

The answer, is for all your numerous friends to bravely stand beside you and shame the tyrant into standing down. Deny the tyrant social acceptance.

In the same way it is vitally important that the World, which includes Countries, Companies, Organisations, Oligarchs, people, you, me, everyone, to continue to stand together and shout clearly and loudly “No, this is not acceptable, stop or be forever be excluded”. 

So do whatever you can, write, email, tweet, donate, lobby, demonstrate, support etc etc DENY SOCIAL ACCEPTANCE.

The alternative is for the shooting to escalate.         

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An example from history would be the English Tyrant King John, who was brought under control when most of the English barons ganged up on him and forced the signing of the Magna Carta. His social group rejected his lawlessness and taxes. Perhaps the Russian Oligarchs or army could do us all a favour and get Putin under control and make him sign a Russian equivalent!

Putin The Coward

 I enjoyed Boris Johnson saying that Putin’s actions were the perfect example of Toxic Masculinity, where Putin projects an image of “crazy macho” which results in harmful behaviour.  

Real men, don’t need to project an image. The genuine article shines through by their brave actions, unshakable confidence and strength of mind. Based on the principles of integrity, honesty  and selflessness, true manly characteristics are soon recognised by others, earning respect and admiration.                                 
        
Putin is not a real man, which is why he has to strut about bare chested pretending. Putin is vane, insecure and scared, which is why Boris’ comments resulted in the UK Ambassador in Moscow being called to the Kremlin for an official dressing down. The truth hurts doesn’t it?

Putin is also a coward. During the covid pandemic he hid away afraid to come out and whilst he says he has had the vaccine, he did not get jabbed in front of the TV cameras as the other world leaders have done. He is also a coward, because rather than take on his political opponents, he gets his agents to poison them, as he did with Alexey Navalny. He is a coward because he hides the truth of the war in Ukraine from his own people, because he knows that, if they could see what is really happening, that their brave sons are dying for his vanity and an imagined cause based on a reality that no longer exists, they would not agree. He's so scared of his own people, he can't even call a war a war, but says it's a special military operation, and so hides behind confusing words. He clamps down on freedom of speech, locking up protesters and internet users because he knows he has no valid argument to defend his nonsense that the west wants to destroy Russia.

Putin says he admires Peter the Great and would  also like to be remembered as “A Great”. Well perhaps he should do as the British hero Lord Nelson did. He should go to Ukraine, meet his brave soldiers fighting his war, talk to them, thank them and stand with them in the heat of battle. He should be prepared to die for what he believes in and maybe even fall with this troops whilst leading them to victory and glory. If this were to happen, the Russian People would then surely bury him as “Putin the Great“.

But I doubt if he will go to Ukraine. “Putin the Coward” will stay in Moscow.           Cowards always do what is easiest for them, and avoid the more difficult correct course of action.

Post script - Putin, one year after the war was started has finally visited Ukraine. He drove about Maripol at night and visited some buildings that are being rebuild. I'm not sure what he would have seen in the darkness, but perhaps Xi made him go to see the reality of his war before he would meet him.