Ukraine - what next? (How to break the cycle of endless wars 2)

 The current state of the war in Ukraine is likely to result in stalemate. The Russian Army has dug in and Ukrainians are finding it extremely difficult to break through and push them out of their country. Each side is launching missile attacks that have little strategic value but look good in the news. Behind the scenes, Russia is increasing its military spending by 25%, and Zelensky is touring the West trying to keep the financial and military support for his country high. However, signs of Western resolve diminishing are appearing, as results have not been forthcoming on the battle field and no end is in sight.

Internationally, sanctions are starting to have some effect as the Rubal falls, but not enough to restrict the Russian war effort. China, whilst indirectly condemning the war by calling for peace, appears to be doing nothing that would reduce the conflict and is silent on Russian / North Korean military co operation,

So what next? What should be the next moves in the “Great Game” which brings death, misery and destruction to so many? How do we end this war?

What is certain, is that Putin will win next years Russian Presidential election, probably by 98%. Putin needs a large election victory to demonstrate to Russians, the world and himself that he has the total backing of the people and that every thing he does is popular, right and correct. And because the Russian people have been crushed into silence and inaction by Putin’s  anti dissent laws, we are unlikely to see an up rising on the streets in protest, even though everyone knows its a sham. The Russian people don’t have it in them to stand up to power, and will continue to trudge off to the front line, enslaved by their own leader.

So, Putin will remain in power and as he will never admit he's made a mistake, delude himself that he is protecting the mother land from those who want to destroy it (or more correctly destroy HIS ideology), he will continue to waste all of Russia’s resources, both materially and human, on the war.

The West, who are happy for Ukraine to do it's dirty work, ie weaken Russia, will slowly accept that Ukraine survived the war, albeit as a smaller country, and accept that the war should enter a new low level cheaper phase with no movement along the front line, which will eventually become the new boarder (similar to Turkish boarder in Cyprus).

However with Putin remaining in power, and with Russian Military spending being increased it would be foolish to think that Putin will not attack again in the medium term. War is his excuse for remaining in power as it hides the total failure of his domestic policies. So the West must not let him grab the initiative and must make the next move. The Russian Army is on the back foot and it must not be allowed to regroup, reorganise and come back stronger.

Therefore, I say that, if Europe wants another 70 years of peace, as we have enjoyed since the second world war, Nato and all of the Western alliance must issue an ultimatum to Putin - Get out of Ukraine, Crimea and the Black Sea by the end of the year, or Ukraine will be treated as a full member of Nato and Nato Forces will enter the War. This should be backed up with increased military build up on the Nato / Ukrainian Border ready for Ukraines Permission to enter their country and take part in the war. Putin will no doubt bang on about nuclear weapons and try to scare everyone, say that it is impossible to meet these demands, but he is not stupid and neither are his Generals. He is not going to take on Nato, especially with his armed forces in a weakened state. He will not want Nato in Ukraine. (Putin keeps talking about nuclear weapons, because, with is army taking a hammering in Ukraine, the rest of Russia is virtually undefended and open to other threats).

This is what should happen to finish Putin, but it is unlikely to happen as Western leaders only think of the short term. They will dither and let Putin get strong again and so have to fight another war in say 3-5 years time. China may even get ideas, and start its own war.

And so the tragedy will continue, the opportunity to break the cycle of endless wars will be missed and humanity will be plagued by serious violence for at least another century. What a waste.
 

Chinese and Russian elites wrongly think wars will keep them in power

 

"Chinese defense minister to speak at Russian event billed as fighting 'Western world domination' China's defense minister will speak at the Moscow Conference on International Security, a spokesperson has said". - Sky news 14 Aug 23

As reported by Sky news, China, Russia and Belarus are getting together to tackle the threat of "Western World Domination". Perhaps they should first think about why they perceive the West to be so dominant.

If they do, they might come to realize that their oppressive method of organising societies is not as successful as ones based on co operation, interdependence, freedom, rule of equitable laws, democracy and that mutual aid produces happier, more innovative, and successful citizens than their authoritarian dictatorships can. 

But there is no chance of such a discussion. China has moved away from liberal policies and its economy is faltering, Russia is fighting a pointless war and the ruble is sinking, Belarus has no independence and has to do what ever Putin says. So it is true that they are fighting "Western World Domination" but (whilst the west is supporting Ukraine to protect its independence), it is not fighting them and doesn't want to.The reality is, their ruling elites are fighting for their own survival, and because they are using outdated 20th century militaristic ideas, (ie invent a foe so the people must unite behind the leadership) they have no hope of keeping up with the modern interconnected, interdependent, compassionate world.

How many migrants seek a better life in China, Russia or Belarus? Hardly any. Given the choice, people move towards freedom.

The Tyranny of The majority

 In the UK and Israel, the democratically elected Governments are attempting to pass laws that protect their own positions. From the stand point of "we represent the people", they think the can do what ever they like. However, history tells us time and time again they cannot - think of the Terror after the French Revolution as an extreme case. 

As the new bill is still making its passage through Parliament, I have sent the following letter to my Member of parliament to see if our historic system still works. 

Dear Sir

 By the differences in their nature, upbringing, learning and experience, every human being has a unique outlook on the world. This means it is perfectly natural for people to have differing points of views on a wide range of issues, and as we in the West believe in freedom of expression, these differing views should be permitted to be aired and discussed, rather than be driven underground or kept unspoken by self censorship.  It is also the duty of the majority, not to oppress the minority, and not to abuse their power for their own benefit.

 If minority views are not permitted to be aired by passionate people who get frustrated because the majority will not listen, then what will happen? They will find other more extreme ways to protest, and the majority will react with more bans, to which more extreme forms of protest occur to which the majority calls in the army to start shooting. THIS IS NOT A MADE UP STORY, BUT HAPPENS TIME AND TIME AGAIN, ALL OVER THE WORLD.

 What the current majority forgets, (or only knows too well) is that today's minority may be tomorrows majority – but this is not a  bad thing this is PROGRESS.

For these reasons the Law and order bill which reduces the power of citizens to express their views should be thrown out. It goes against every thing this country has stood for in my life time. I can only speak for myself but no one will ever take away my freedom of expression, but it is up to others to decide how extreme that expression is displayed.

Please discuss my words with all of your Parliamentary colleagues.

 Yours Sincerely 

 

The reason this bill has been proposed in the UK is because protesters have been blocking motorways, disrupting the center of London for days on end and generally being such a pain that the Government feels it has to act. However the protesters actions have not been popular and so their tactics have backfired on them - the general population has turned against them. Therefore the bill is no longer required. However the protestors made them selves heard and will no doubt try other less disruptive but more persuasive methods in the future.  Good for them.

However if it is passed, and similar anti freedom bills are passed in the future, I will be making a few free downloads from the Albert Einstein Institute.  

Letter to Ukraine

 I am a nobody from Sheffield, I know nothing of war, but I stand with Ukraine.  I have never punched anyone, let alone held a gun, so I fight with words, as they are all I have. They say the pen is mightier than the sword, but are my internet posts mightier than the Himar?  Probably not, but the following is the best I can do.  

I have no idea what you are going through, it looks horrendous, but from what I have read of history, many before have endured as you do and emerged in a better world.  I stand with Ukraine in support of your fight for a free and independent Ukraine, but wish there was an easier way. I don’t like this war, any war, the suffering human beings face, which ever side they are on, pains me. And all because of selfish, loveless leaders who haven’t got a clue what they are doing.

Please remember to always fight because of your love of your families, your love of your country and your love of freedom. Although it is hard, don’t fight because of your hatred of Russians. Without love we are lost. And with love (and modern weapons) your soldiers are each worth hundreds of those who fight for money, power or just because they are forced to do so by others.

I believe the vast majority of people in Russia also love freedom, but are trapped in a country of lies, created by a psychopathic coward who has lost the capacity to love. When did you last see Putin standing with his wife or children? Who are his friends? Does he ever go and meet the people or show up at the front, to stand shoulder to shoulder with his troops? No, he loves no one, and no one loves him. His is the heart of darkness. His is the Horror. He is destroying himself. Pity him, he hasn’t even got a dog that loves him.

Do not hold the lines on maps as scared. There will come a time when the price of protecting what you believe to be scared will be too high. Always search for peace, even when you do not trust the enemy. Remember the art of war - you can fight the enemy, by not fighting.

Unfortunately, I cannot celebrate victory - to me, all war is tragedy. War is a primitive, backward and base activity that is promoted by people who are unintelligent and follow out of date philosophies. Those who start wars are people who do not have the skills  to solve their problems by normal political means, ie respectful negotiation and compromise. They can only achieve their goals by conning others to commit violence with threats and lies and so are not fit to lead. War only spreads, destruction, desolation, misery and pain. It is no solution to problems. Everyone has a selfless duty, not to hide from the horrors of our past, but to stand together against such cowards and fools. We should all unite to consign war to the history books, to keep war out of our present and humanity’s future.

I wish the west was fighting by your side, but that would strengthen Putin’s lie, that we want to destroy Russia. So be strong Ukraine, fight smart as you have been doing. With truth, freedom and love on your side, you cannot lose.

Letter to the Russian Ambassador to the UK

 Dear Ambassador Kelin


What is the Point of continuing the Ukrainian War?


As one of the roles of an Ambassador is to increase understanding between nations, please would you answer the following simple question - What is the point of continuing the Ukrainian War? I can no longer see any advantages to Russia, Ukraine or Putin himself in continuing what has become completely pointless. What is being achieved? How is anyone benefiting from it?

The initial stated aim was to denazify Ukraine. But is Ukraine being denazified? Do they want to be denazified? Has Russia found any Nazi’s in Ukraine?

Is the Russian Empire being enlarged? Is the “shame” of the collapse of the Soviet Union being rectified? Is Russia more respected now than before the war? Has Russia more friends and allies in 2023 than in 2022? Are migrants flocking to Russia for a better life?

As for Putin, is he now stronger or weaker as President? Are the Russian people more supportive of  him now than before? Has he shown that his philosophy of world order is right and others are wrong? Is might right or has it been shown that the most powerful weapons ever created are useless in changing peoples ideas and what they think is worth dying for?

When Putin is dead, what will Russia and the World think of him? How will History remember Putin? Who will come to his funeral?

So Mr Ambassador, the representative of the Russian State and Russian People, please explain to me as I do understand - What is the Point of continuing this war? How does it make the World a better place?


Yours Sincerely

How to Stop A Tyrant Part 2

 Human beings, which can only thrive in social groups, have a fundamental need for approval by their community. The threat of being thrown out of your group, because it disapproves of something you said or did usually leads to you apologising and backing down to ensure that your membership continues. Ostracism is woeful, as Ovid in exile found out.

Why do Authoritarian states and dictatorships hold elections and referendums, even when they have no intention of releasing their grip on power? Why do they bother? The answer is because, it is a way of  showing to their Social group, which is other nations and their own people, that they are justified in their behaviour and policies. It maintains the delusion that they are democratic and acting correctly, so are immune from criticism and should continue in power. They too, don’t want to be thrown out of the international group .

                                             
So rigged elections continue around the world, even though the results are predetermined, in Hong Kong, China, Belarus, Russian occupied Ukraine. Social acceptance is essential, regardless of the voters point of view.

Putin craves social acceptance and this explains why he writes to North Korea (a minor poor country), sends his second in command on tour to African Countries (to justify his actions), craves the friendship of China (who‘s system he is copies), allows grain shipments from Ukraine (which was making him unpopular in neutral countries), permits UN inspection of a Nuclear plant in a War Zone, (he would be blamed for any nuclear disaster) and wants history to remember him as Peter the Great (social acceptance forever).

Even China, craves acceptance and respect from the world, it wants it’s political system to be recognised world wide as the best. it’s a shame that currently, it wants to demonstrate this by military force. If China really did have the greatest political system, countries like Taiwan would be queuing up to be it’s friend, given the size of its market.

A while ago I asked “How do you stop a tyrant who points a gun in your face?”

The answer, is for all your numerous friends to bravely stand beside you and shame the tyrant into standing down. Deny the tyrant social acceptance.

In the same way it is vitally important that the World, which includes Countries, Companies, Organisations, Oligarchs, people, you, me, everyone, to continue to stand together and shout clearly and loudly “No, this is not acceptable, stop or be forever be excluded”. 

So do whatever you can, write, email, tweet, donate, lobby, demonstrate, support etc etc DENY SOCIAL ACCEPTANCE.

The alternative is for the shooting to escalate.         

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An example from history would be the English Tyrant King John, who was brought under control when most of the English barons ganged up on him and forced the signing of the Magna Carta. His social group rejected his lawlessness and taxes. Perhaps the Russian Oligarchs or army could do us all a favour and get Putin under control and make him sign a Russian equivalent!

The Direction of Human History

 

(An edited version of the essay below was published on 6th March 2022 as the lead letter in the Economist magazine. It deeply saddens me that I have had to write such words)

 

I find it reassuring that, from my experience, the vast majority of humanity has already chosen not to make war, but chosen  a peaceful co-existence with their fellow sapiens. The major problem, highlighted by tensions over Ukraine, is how those peaceful people get rid of the minority of people who choose to use force and violence to increase their  power and status. How do you control someone who points a gun in your face?.

 The direction of  humanity will be decided if it can stop such people. But how?

 If a tyrant  gets elected, by making popular  promises of short term gain for their electorate, you may think that  using the law to expose their corruption or illegal activity will bring them to heel. But the law  and constitutions are human constructs, which can be  changed to suit those in power, and judges can be manipulated with rewards and bribes.

You could try protests on the streets, but these  don’t seem to work. Leaders will just send in the police as in Hong Kong and Belarus or tanks as in Tiananmen Square.  

Will spreading the truth about those in power control their behaviour? No chance, as speaking out will get you branded as a terrorist trying to cause harm to society. Arrest and a long term in jail will follow, which silences you and deters others.

Perhaps people should vote for different people at the next election, but it will probably be too late by then, as the opposition has been locked up  and voting  rigged  so that real change is impossible.

Perhaps feminism can exert soft power over powerful men? Well this has never happened in the past and would need a massive show of girl power to work.

Don’t look to religion for help either, religious leaders have never done anything in the past, as they are too intermeshed with the elites, to want the status quo to change. They think some supernatural, made up force will sort it all out  anyway. After 2000 years where has religion got us?

Will the freedoms and anarchy  of the internet  promote free speech and  enable the people to co ordinate and rise up against the oppressors? Well not if it is constantly monitored and controlled by those in power. Once in power the elite who have no shame to use force are proving very hard if not impossible to shift by their own people.

So international help is needed from  other peaceful countries imposing sanctions, but this is a long game, and if you look at North Korea seems to have no end. Also Sanctions only have the effect of harming the peaceful majority of people rather than the uncaring leadership, who continue to live in isolation, luxury and delusion. I’m sure Mr Putin knows that Russia will be worst off economically if he invades Ukraine, but I doubt if he cares. He will still be in power, living in luxury and wealth, convinced that his world view is correct. As long as his army obeys him, nothing can stop him, and his army is currently busy a long way away from Moscow, dealing with other matters. No the uncomfortable and inconvenient truth is, that the only way to stop dictators is by an internal coup (which will probably just replace one dictator with another) or by meeting violence with violence ie threatening war.

 After all, wasn’t the modern version of democracy born from war during the French revolution, American war of independence and the English Civil war? And what happened to the first democracy in Greece when the Spartan's and Macedonian's turned up? Historians go quiet on that one. Democracy is not the default setting for human societies.

 If the free world wants to stop Putin and protect the fledgling democracy in Ukraine, it will have to threaten to meet force with force and treat Ukraine as if it is already a Full member of Nato with all it’s implications of possible imminent nuclear war. I’m sure that everyone reading this will find this statement shocking, but what other way is there? Many in the past have fought for freedom, is our time to stand up for what we value fast approaching?

 Hitler was elected by a free and fair election , and if Trump had had an organised paramilitary wing he could at this very moment be the first dictator of the USA. The destiny of humanity is most definitely in all of our hands. The Question is not what to choose but how to act.