I have a dream!

 Our closest relatives, the Neanderthals, died out 40,000 years ago leaving us, Homo sapiens, to dominate the planet.  In his book on the subject, palaeoanthropologist Ludovic Slimak proposes that their demise was not because of failure to adapt to climate change, but because of homo sapiens superior weapons. What is implied, is that Homo sapiens killed off the Neanderthals, in the first incidence of genocide. 

In the Neolithic, when a settled farming lifestyle was becoming established, evidence is emerging (in  Europe) for many acts of whole communities being massacred with bodies being disposed of in mass  graves. (Schoneck - Kilianstadtan). Central Europe is being seen as a bit of a "blood bath" as Professor Alice Roberts puts it. Also when homo sapiens first entered the Americas and New Zealand,  species went extinct, so it is speculated that we killed them off in a frenzy of hunting.

Of course, these are only  theories based on very little evidence, so you can pick and choose your preferred version of reality, and no one can say you are wrong. But given humanity’s historic record of violence, tribalism and destruction, it certainly fits my low opinion of homo sapiens. (See “History of the world in a single object” below).

It is now generally accepted that we are in a new geological era, the Anthropocene*. This period started mid 20th Century, when humans started to irreversible change the planet and now there is no going back. We continue to harm ourselves and the planet through wars, pollution, tribalism, violence and selfishness and by using technology to vastly speed up and increase the effects of these bad habits, it appears that the future of Homo Sapiens is going to be worse, and probably much worse.

If you accept that, because of our superior weaponry, we raped and killed off the Neanderthals, (rape could explain Neanderthal genes are in our genome),  fought battles with the first farmers and killed off many species upon arrival in a new land, then it looks likely that from the very beginning, our success as a species is based on  genocide against other peoples, namely the Neanderthals,  It would appear that our fundamental nature  from deep prehistory, is shameful. People like Hitler, Stalin and Putin are just keeping up the tradition.

I’m sure you are aware of the many great challenges facing humanity, and if you have read some of my essays, you will know that I’m not convinced humanity is up to the job. Great change is coming and we need to change greatly. We need to learn from the past, face up to who we are, accept that our fundamental nature, which up till now, has turned humanity into a great success**.and move on to something better. You could say that because we need to change fundamentally, humanity needs to evolve.

So, having acknowledged the reality of a new geological era, why can‘t we recognise the emergence of a new species, a new split in the tree of life,, a new version of Homo. Isn’t it time for the emergence of  HOMO MUTUALARLIS, a new species that cares, co-operates, puts others first and rejects the violence, selfishness and tribalism of our less enlightened ancestors? Such a species, that recognises that their individual wants, desires and life, is of equal. or of less, importance than that of  others,  that   continually strives to make the world a better place, rather than worse, could then look forward to a compassionate, happier, and sustainable world. 

Well, that’s my dream, you probably think. But aren't there already examples of this fine new species out there in the field? We just need them to breed like rabbits!!!!!

*(up date - geologists who are more at home with timescales of millions of years have rejected this conceit, but the idea has taken root in the public imagination)

**(if you regard accumulation of knowledge and domination of other species as a definition of success)

Ukraine - what next? (How to break the cycle of endless wars 2)

 The current state of the war in Ukraine is likely to result in stalemate. The Russian Army has dug in and Ukrainians are finding it extremely difficult to break through and push them out of their country. Each side is launching missile attacks that have little strategic value but look good in the news. Behind the scenes, Russia is increasing its military spending by 25%, and Zelensky is touring the West trying to keep the financial and military support for his country high. However, signs of Western resolve diminishing are appearing, as results have not been forthcoming on the battle field and no end is in sight.

Internationally, sanctions are starting to have some effect as the Rubal falls, but not enough to restrict the Russian war effort. China, whilst indirectly condemning the war by calling for peace, appears to be doing nothing that would reduce the conflict and is silent on Russian / North Korean military co operation,

So what next? What should be the next moves in the “Great Game” which brings death, misery and destruction to so many? How do we end this war?

What is certain, is that Putin will win next years Russian Presidential election, probably by 98%. Putin needs a large election victory to demonstrate to Russians, the world and himself that he has the total backing of the people and that every thing he does is popular, right and correct. And because the Russian people have been crushed into silence and inaction by Putin’s  anti dissent laws, we are unlikely to see an up rising on the streets in protest, even though everyone knows its a sham. The Russian people don’t have it in them to stand up to power, and will continue to trudge off to the front line, enslaved by their own leader.

So, Putin will remain in power and as he will never admit he's made a mistake, delude himself that he is protecting the mother land from those who want to destroy it (or more correctly destroy HIS ideology), he will continue to waste all of Russia’s resources, both materially and human, on the war.

The West, who are happy for Ukraine to do it's dirty work, ie weaken Russia, will slowly accept that Ukraine survived the war, albeit as a smaller country, and accept that the war should enter a new low level cheaper phase with no movement along the front line, which will eventually become the new boarder (similar to Turkish boarder in Cyprus).

However with Putin remaining in power, and with Russian Military spending being increased it would be foolish to think that Putin will not attack again in the medium term. War is his excuse for remaining in power as it hides the total failure of his domestic policies. So the West must not let him grab the initiative and must make the next move. The Russian Army is on the back foot and it must not be allowed to regroup, reorganise and come back stronger.

Therefore, I say that, if Europe wants another 70 years of peace, as we have enjoyed since the second world war, Nato and all of the Western alliance must issue an ultimatum to Putin - Get out of Ukraine, Crimea and the Black Sea by the end of the year, or Ukraine will be treated as a full member of Nato and Nato Forces will enter the War. This should be backed up with increased military build up on the Nato / Ukrainian Border ready for Ukraines Permission to enter their country and take part in the war. Putin will no doubt bang on about nuclear weapons and try to scare everyone, say that it is impossible to meet these demands, but he is not stupid and neither are his Generals. He is not going to take on Nato, especially with his armed forces in a weakened state. He will not want Nato in Ukraine. (Putin keeps talking about nuclear weapons, because, with is army taking a hammering in Ukraine, the rest of Russia is virtually undefended and open to other threats).

This is what should happen to finish Putin, but it is unlikely to happen as Western leaders only think of the short term. They will dither and let Putin get strong again and so have to fight another war in say 3-5 years time. China may even get ideas, and start its own war.

And so the tragedy will continue, the opportunity to break the cycle of endless wars will be missed and humanity will be plagued by serious violence for at least another century. What a waste.